House prices are forecast to go up in 2027, but by how much depends on who is forecasting and when they did it. The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official independent forecaster, expects UK house prices to rise 2.9% on average in calendar year 2027, in a forecast published on 3 March 2026. Two estate agencies that revised their figures after that date sit either side of it, with Savills at 2.5% and Knight Frank at 3%.
In short
- The OBR expects UK house prices to rise 2.9% in 2027; Savills forecasts 2.5% and Knight Frank 3%.
- Across 14 past OBR forecasts, the average miss was 3.7 percentage points.
- The OBR’s next forecast arrives with the Budget on 28 October 2026.
- The latest official average price, for July 2026, was £273,000, up 1.4% on a year earlier.
- Price the deal on today’s rent and mortgage rate, and treat any 2027 growth as a bonus.
The OBR forecast for 2027
The OBR’s 2.9% for 2027 sits between the two estate agency forecasts made since it was published.
The OBR sets out its house price path in two tables, and they use different years.
Table A.1 of its March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook gives house price growth by calendar year:
| Year | OBR forecast growth |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4% |
| 2027 | 2.9% |
| 2028 | 2.7% |
| 2029 | 2.6% |
| 2030 | 2.4% |
Table A.3 gives residential property prices by financial year, at 2.8% in 2026-27 and 2.9% in 2027-28. Both are changes on a year earlier, and the notes to Table A.3 say the outturn comes from the ONS House Price Index.
In the report itself, the OBR says it expects house price inflation to average just over 2½% for the rest of the forecast period, broadly in line with growth in average incomes. In the same section it expects the average interest rate on the outstanding stock of mortgages to rise from 4.1% in 2026 to 4.5% on average over the rest of the period.
It says that path is lower than it forecast in November 2025 because interest rate expectations had fallen.
Two dates decide how far to lean on it. The OBR says conflict in the Middle East escalated after it closed the forecast, so none of the rise in mortgage rates that Savills and Knight Frank point to below is in these numbers. Its next forecast is due on 28 October 2026, the date the Chancellor has confirmed for the Budget, and every figure above could change then.
Other 2027 house price forecasts
HM Treasury publishes a monthly summary of outside forecasts, and its September 2026 edition, published on 16 September, carries 2027 house price figures from banks, consultancies and research institutes. Measured from the last quarter of 2026 to the last quarter of 2027, the forecasts made in the three months to September run from 0.8% at Oxford Economics to 3.5% at Capital Economics. The forecasts were made at different points between February and September 2026, so the older ones predate the latest data.
On that end of year measure, the same table shows the OBR’s own 2027 figure as 2.2% rather than 2.9%. Nothing about the forecast changed. One number compares the final quarter of each year, which is how the Treasury’s table defines house price inflation, and the other averages the whole year.
Check the basis before you compare any two forecasts.
Property firms publish their own forecasts too, and their businesses depend on how active the market is. Savills, a property firm whose business includes selling homes, revised its mainstream UK forecast on 1 June 2026 to a 2% fall in 2026, then growth of 2.5% in 2027 and 5% in 2028, adding up to 18.5% over the five years to 2030.
It gives higher mortgage rates reducing demand as the reason. Knight Frank, an estate agency, forecast on 27 April 2026 growth of 1.5% in 2026, 3% in 2027 and 4% in 2028, excluding new-build homes, and says the conflict has pushed mortgage rates higher and weakened buyer sentiment.
Rightmove, the property portal, measures asking prices on its own site rather than prices achieved, and its forecast page, updated in September 2026, says it will share a 2027 forecast before the end of the year. Its revised 2026 figure is covered in our piece on buying a house before the Autumn Budget.
Savills 2027 forecast, London
1%
Savills 2027 forecast, North East, North West and Yorkshire and the Humber
3.5%
The regional spread inside the Savills forecast is wider than the gap between the national figures.
Where house prices are now
The latest official figure is for July 2026. The UK House Price Index, first published by HM Land Registry on 16 September 2026, put the average UK price at £273,000, up 1.4% on a year earlier and 0.7% on the month.
Asking prices are weaker. Rightmove’s August index put the average asking price for a newly listed home 1.0% below a year earlier. Which regions are falling and which are still rising is set out in our piece on whether house prices are going down, so it is not repeated here.
What a house price forecast is worth
The OBR is open about uncertainty. Its March 2026 report says its central forecast sits in the middle of a range of possible outcomes, and that “outcomes both substantially below and above our central forecast are likely”. That statement covers the whole economic and fiscal forecast, and the record on house prices bears it out.
The OBR’s historical official forecasts database lets anyone check. We took each forecast it made from November 2016, when it started forecasting the current ONS index, to November 2023, and compared its figure for the following calendar year with the outturn the database now records.
| OBR forecast accuracy, Nov 2016 to Nov 2023 | Figure |
|---|---|
| Forecasts checked | 14 |
| Average miss | 3.7 percentage points |
| Within two points | 8 |
| Came in below the outturn | 10 |
| Came in above the outturn | 4 |
Ten came in below what prices actually did and four above, so the misses ran in both directions, though more often too low in this period.
The five largest misses all came in forecasts made between November 2020 and November 2023.
| Forecast made | For year | Forecast | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2020 | 2021 | 3.5% fall | 8.2% growth |
| March 2021 | 2022 | 1.7% fall | 9.3% growth |
| October 2021 | 2022 | 3.2% growth | 9.3% growth |
| March 2023 | 2024 | 5.7% fall | 0.7% growth |
| November 2023 | 2024 | 4.7% fall | 0.7% growth |
Put in pounds on the July 2026 average of £273,000, the spread of 2027 forecasts and the OBR’s average miss look like this.
Gap between the lowest and highest recent 2027 forecasts
About £7,000
The OBR’s average forecast miss
About £10,000
That is an illustration on a national average, not a view on any property.
Most year-ahead forecasts in the OBR’s record landed within two points, and the ones that did not missed badly.
What this means for property investors
If you are buying for income, price the purchase on today’s rent, today’s mortgage rate and today’s price, and treat any 2027 growth as a bonus rather than part of the case. Then test the numbers with no growth at all. One forecaster in the Treasury’s summary is at 0.8%, Savills expects London to trail the North by 2.5 points in 2027, and the OBR’s record shows misses of several points, so a national forecast is a weak reason to pay more for a particular house.
The same evidence cuts the other way. Every 2027 forecast cited here points to growth, and past misses have run in both directions, so a forecast is also a weak reason to hold off in the hope of a fall. If you are still choosing where to look, our ranking of the cheapest places to buy property in the UK shows why a low average price is a starting point rather than a verdict.
If you own a property and are deciding when to sell, treat a 2027 forecast as one input, not a timetable. At the Savills and Knight Frank rates, a year’s growth on a £273,000 home would be £6,825 to £8,190, which is less than the OBR’s average miss, so a sale timed to capture that growth rests on the least reliable number in the sum. Selling now is not automatically the safe choice either. The better test is whether keeping the property beats the cash a sale would release, which our guide on whether to sell your buy to let works through with a break-even growth rate you set yourself.
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026, with three of the nine members of its Monetary Policy Committee voting to raise it to 4%. Two dates are now worth diarising: its next decision, due on 5 November 2026, and the OBR’s next forecast, which comes with the Budget on 28 October 2026. Re-read any 2027 figure after each of them. This is general information, not advice on your situation, so take independent advice before acting.
If you own a rental and want to know what it is worth in this market, get a free desktop valuation: an evidence-backed range within 24 hours, yours whether you sell or not. If you are buying, see the investment property on our books today.