The published forecasts give no strong reason to wait until 2027 and no strong reason to rush a sale now: the Office for Budget Responsibility expects UK house prices to rise 2.9% in 2027, and the latest official figures show prices 1.4% higher in July 2026 than a year earlier. This is general information, not advice on your situation.
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In short
- The OBR forecast of 3 March 2026 expects UK house prices to rise 2.9% in 2027, measured as a yearly average.
- Independent forecasts in the Treasury comparison of 16 September 2026 put 2027 growth between 0.8% and 3.5%, measured on a different basis that compares final quarters, as explained below.
- The average UK price was £273,000 in July 2026, up 1.4% on a year earlier.
- The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026, with three of its nine rate setters voting to raise it.
- Government figures from June 2026 put completion at around 120 days after an accepted offer, with around one in three transactions falling through.
What the forecasts say about 2027
The Office for Budget Responsibility is the government’s official independent forecaster, and its latest forecast was published on 3 March 2026. Table A.1 of its March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook puts UK house price growth at 2.4% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, each measured as a yearly average against the year before.
Its next forecast is due with the Budget on 28 October 2026, so both figures could change within six weeks. The OBR is open about the uncertainty: its March report says outcomes “both substantially below and above our central forecast are likely”. It also says conflict in the Middle East escalated as it was finalising the report.
HM Treasury’s September 2026 comparison of independent forecasts, published on 16 September 2026, gives a second view. Forecasts made in the last three months put UK house price growth over 2027 between 0.8% at Oxford Economics and 3.5% at Capital Economics, with an average of about 2%.
Those independent figures compare the last quarter of 2027 with the last quarter of 2026, which is a different basis from the OBR’s yearly average. On that basis the same table shows the OBR at 2.2%. The Treasury says the comparison reflects the forecasters’ own views, not its own.
On the July 2026 UK average of £273,000, the independent range works out at roughly £2,300 to £9,600 of growth over 2027, using the unrounded Treasury figures. It is a rough illustration on a national average, not a figure for any particular house.
How far past OBR forecasts have missed, and what estate agencies are forecasting, is covered in our piece on whether house prices will go up in 2027.
Where house prices are now
HM Land Registry published the UK House Price Index for July 2026 on 16 September 2026. It put the average UK price at £273,000, up 1.4% on a year earlier and 0.7% on the month. The release says both are provisional and likely to be revised.
Annual growth has now slowed for three months in a row, and the June 2026 figure was revised to 1.5%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average UK price fell 0.2% between June and July 2026.
| Area | Average price, July 2026 | Change on a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| England | £293,479 | 1.1% |
| Scotland | £196,349 | 2.3% |
| North East | £166,943 | 4.9% |
| London | £550,037 | -3.3% |
The spread matters more than the average. London prices fell 3.3% in the year to July 2026, the eleventh month in a row of annual falls there, while prices in the North East rose 4.9%. A national forecast says little about one street, so read the regional picture in our piece on whether house prices are going down alongside this one.
Interest rates and the Budget
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026. Six members of its Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold and three voted to raise it to 4%, so the committee was split between holding and rising, not cutting. Its next decision is due on 5 November 2026.
What borrowers actually pay sits above Bank Rate. The Bank’s money and credit release for July 2026 shows the effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages rose to 4.45% in July from 4.35% in June, while the rate on the outstanding stock of mortgages was 3.97%. The OBR’s March 2026 forecast expects the average rate on outstanding mortgages to rise from 4.1% in 2026 to 4.5% on average over the rest of its forecast period.
The Budget is on 28 October 2026, a date the Chancellor confirmed in a letter to the Treasury Select Committee published on 31 July 2026. What it will contain is not known. Our piece on buying a house before the Autumn Budget sets out what is and is not known.
In Scotland: stamp duty land tax does not apply. Revenue Scotland says Land and Buildings Transaction Tax replaced it there from 1 April 2015, so a stamp duty change in the UK Budget would not by itself change the tax on a Scottish purchase.
The cost of waiting
What waiting costs is easier to pin down than a forecast. The government’s home buying and selling reform roadmap, published on 19 June 2026, says it takes around 120 days on average to complete once an offer is accepted, and that around one in three transactions fall through. The roadmap does not say which nations those figures cover, and its reforms are not expected to apply in Scotland, so treat the average with more caution for a Scottish sale.
At that average, an offer accepted in mid September 2026 would complete in mid January 2027, so a sale started now already lands in 2027. Starting in January 2027 means completing, on the same average, in May 2027 or later.
What to weigh on each side:
- If you have already moved out or are paying for two homes, every month you wait adds mortgage payments, council tax, insurance and upkeep on a house you intend to leave. If you still live there, most of those costs carry on wherever you live.
- The roadmap names property chains among the causes of sales falling through, and that risk comes with any sale that relies on a chain, whichever year it happens.
- If your current fixed rate is well below the 4.45% effective rate on new mortgages in July 2026, keeping it for longer is a real argument for waiting. Check with your lender whether the rate could move with you to your next home, and what ending it early would cost.
- A 2.9% rise on the July 2026 UK average of £273,000 would be about £7,900, and the OBR says of its whole forecast that outcomes substantially above and below it are both likely.
So waiting can be the right call for someone with no date to move by and a cheap mortgage with time left on it. It is a weaker call for someone paying to hold a house they have already decided to leave, in the hope of a gain measured in single percentage points.
Scotland works differently. The roadmap does not expect its reforms to apply there, because Scotland has a distinct framework, and it describes binding conditional contracts as bringing the rest of the UK more in line with Scotland. According to mygov.scot, a house publicly for sale in Scotland should have a Home Report, which includes a survey and a valuation.
If the house is let rather than lived in, the sums are different, and our guide on when to sell a buy to let works through them.
What this means if you are deciding when to sell
Start with your own dates, not the national forecast. Work out when you need to have moved, add around 120 days from an accepted offer, and allow for the chance that the first sale falls through. If that already runs into 2027, choosing between now and 2027 is mostly choosing when to start.
Then set what each month of waiting costs you against a forecast gain of a few percentage points, which the OBR will update on 28 October 2026 and which could move either way. Re-check the next UK House Price Index, due on 21 October 2026, and the next Bank Rate decision, due on 5 November 2026, before you commit. This is general information, not advice on your situation, so take independent advice before acting, for example from a solicitor, a mortgage adviser and more than one estate agent.
Once your dates are clear, find out what the house is worth now. We introduce sellers to investor buyers, so we have an interest in sales. Get a free desktop valuation: send us the address and you will have an evidence-backed range within 24 hours, yours whether you sell or not.