UK interest rates are 3.75%. The Bank of England held Bank Rate there on 17 September 2026 by six votes to three, and its next decision is due on Thursday 5 November 2026, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. The three who voted to raise, Megan Greene, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill, wanted 4%. A rise in November needs two more members to join them, and the minutes show where those votes could come from.
Bank Rate is set for the whole of the UK, so everything here applies to buyers and landlords in Scotland just as it does in England. This page is about Bank Rate itself. For what the hold is doing to fixed mortgage pricing, see our guide to whether mortgage rates will go up.
In short
- Bank Rate is 3.75%, held on 17 September 2026 by 6 votes to 3. Three members voted for 4%.
- The next decision is on Thursday 5 November 2026. Two more votes for a rise would move the rate.
- Before it, September inflation figures are published on 21 October and the Budget is on 28 October.
- The Bank’s survey of 92 market participants, taken 2 to 4 September, on average put the chance of a November rise at about 38%. Market pricing pointed higher.
What the Bank decided on 17 September
According to the Bank’s September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, six members voted to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% and three preferred an increase of 0.25 percentage points. It was the sixth hold of 2026. Bank Rate was last changed on 18 December 2025, when it was cut to 3.75%, according to the Bank’s own rate history.
The reason is energy. The minutes record that Brent crude and UK wholesale gas prices had risen by 36% and 78% respectively since the run-up to the Bank’s July forecast, reflecting events in the Middle East and in Ukraine and Russia. The Bank now expects CPI inflation of around 3.75% in the final quarter of 2026, rising to slightly above 4% in the first quarter of 2027.
The ONS put CPI inflation at 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, with transport, particularly motor fuels, making the largest upward contribution. Services inflation was 3.4%, unchanged on July.
At 3.1%, inflation is 1.1 points above the 2% target, and the figure triggered an exchange of open letters between the Governor and the Chancellor, published alongside the minutes. The Bank says about 0.7 points of that overshoot comes directly from energy prices, mostly motor fuels.
The same meeting also agreed, unanimously, a plan to run the government bonds the Bank still holds for monetary policy down to zero by the end of 2034, through sales of £20 billion a year alongside bonds that mature.
Two more votes would mean a rise
Under the Bank of England Act 1998, decisions are taken by a vote of the members present, so with all nine voting, five votes carry it. Three members have now voted for 4% at two meetings running, and the split has moved in one direction since March:
| Decision, 2026 | Vote to hold | What the dissenters wanted |
|---|---|---|
| 5 February | 5 to 4 | A cut to 3.5% (four members) |
| 19 March | Unanimous | No dissent |
| 30 April | 8 to 1 | A rise to 4% (Huw Pill) |
| 18 June | 7 to 2 | A rise to 4% (Megan Greene, Huw Pill) |
| 30 July | 6 to 3 | A rise to 4% (Greene, Catherine L Mann, Pill) |
| 17 September | 6 to 3 | A rise to 4% (Greene, Mann, Pill) |
Votes as recorded in the Bank’s minutes for February, March, April, June, July and September 2026.
Of the six who held in September, five set out conditions under which a rise could come, and the sixth, Swati Dhingra, wrote that policy needs to respond in a timely way to the emergence of self-sustaining second-round effects, while preferring to wait for a clearer read first.
Andrew Bailey and Clare Lombardelli tied a rise to the energy pressure continuing to build. The Governor wrote that if the conflict in the Middle East persists for an extended period, which he said appears to be the case, and the risk of second-round effects grows, “it is likely that policy may have to tighten”.
Clare Lombardelli wrote that the case for raising Bank Rate builds the longer the conflict continues without a lasting resolution. Dave Ramsden said there could be a case for a rise if upside pressures on the inflation outlook continued to build. Sarah Breeden said it would become increasingly appropriate for Bank Rate to respond if the risks of second-round effects crystallise, and Alan Taylor tied a rise to evidence of second-round effects in wages and prices.
Second-round effects are what the decision turns on. They are energy costs spilling into pay settlements and wider price setting, which keeps inflation up after the energy shock itself fades. The minutes say there was still little evidence of them, but that the risk had increased since July.
Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor put more weight on spare capacity in the economy and want more evidence first. Taylor also wrote that if geopolitical tensions abate and inflation pressures ease, easing policy should then be in prospect. Taylor’s is the only individual statement that raises the prospect of easing policy, and no member has voted for a cut since February.
November does not turn on the three who already want 4%. It could turn on whether two of the six holders judge that the conditions they set out have been met.
Markets expect more than the survey
The Bank also asks firms active in UK interest rate markets what they expect. Its September Market Participants Survey, answered by 92 respondents between 2 and 4 September, put the median expectation for 5 November at a hold. On average, respondents gave a 60% chance of a hold and about a 38% chance of a rise to 4% or above.
Market pricing tells a different story. The minutes record that the curve for UK short-term interest rates sloped upwards and peaked at around 4.9% by the end of 2027, against a survey median of 3.50% for the same point. Market intelligence gathered in the days before the decision suggested the perceived chance of a near-term rise had gone up.
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| Survey: average chance of a rise on 5 November | About 38% |
| Survey: median Bank Rate at the end of 2027 | 3.50% |
| Market curve: peak, by the end of 2027 | Around 4.9% |
Two things explain the gap. The Bank thinks risk premia, the extra return investors demand for uncertainty, account for a material part of the upward slope beyond the near term, so the curve is not a firm forecast.
Survey respondents put it slightly differently. Asked why market pricing sat above their own most likely path, they gave the largest weight, about 35%, to an upside skew in the risks, meaning a hold is their central case but a rise is more likely than a cut. About 20% went to extra uncertainty premia.
The second is timing. The survey closed on 4 September and the minutes say market rates rose further after that. Catherine L Mann wrote that until an escalation in the Middle East shortly before the meeting, markets had expected a prolonged hold.
The survey may also lean on a calmer energy path than the one now in view: 52 of the 89 respondents who answered built their forecasts on the Bank’s central path for energy prices, while the minutes say spot prices are now closer to its adverse scenario, though futures prices beyond the near term remain below it.
Data before the next interest rate decision
The Committee will see one more set of inflation figures before it votes. The ONS publishes consumer price inflation for September on 21 October 2026, and the October figures follow on 18 November, after the decision. The minutes say the knock-on effect of energy on other prices, food in particular, has so far been smaller than expected, and that it is possible the effect has been delayed rather than diminished.
Household energy bills are set to rise too. Ofgem has announced that its price cap will rise by 4% from 1 October, to £1,723 a year for a typical household paying by direct debit for gas and electricity, citing higher wholesale gas prices. The Bank’s September minutes say the cap is now expected to rise substantially further in the first quarter of 2027, all else equal.
| Date | What is published | Who by |
|---|---|---|
| 15 October 2026 | GDP for August | ONS |
| 21 October 2026 | CPI inflation for September | ONS |
| 28 October 2026 | The Budget | HM Treasury |
| 5 November 2026 | Bank Rate decision, minutes and Monetary Policy Report | Bank of England |
| 17 December 2026 | The following Bank Rate decision | Bank of England |
Dates are from the Bank’s published MPC dates, the ONS release calendar and the Treasury’s Budget announcement. The November decision comes with the Bank’s first full forecast since July. If the Committee holds again, its next chance to move is 17 December.
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What this means for property investors
No member has voted for a cut since February. Three members have voted for 4% twice running. The Bank expects inflation slightly above 4% early in 2027, and the three noted that is just when wage settlements are agreed. A deal that only works if Bank Rate falls from here depends on an outcome no member voted for in September. Our guide to the buy to let stress test shows how lenders test a loan against a higher rate.
A return to cheap money is not the base case. Even the calmer survey view does not take rates back to the levels of the 2010s. The median respondent expects Bank Rate of 3.25% five years ahead, the same as their median estimate of the neutral rate, the level that neither speeds up nor slows the economy. From March 2009 until it rose to 1% in May 2022, Bank Rate never went above 0.75%.
The calendar matters if you own rentals. The Budget on 28 October and the rate decision on 5 November land eight days apart, and both can change the sums of holding a let property. Our guides to capital gains tax on property and to selling or keeping a buy to let run those numbers.
If you own a rental and are weighing up a sale, get a free desktop valuation: an evidence-backed range within 24 hours, yours whether you sell or not.
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