Probably, for now. On 25 September 2026 Moneyfacts put the average two-year fixed mortgage at 5.92% and the average five-year fix at 5.94%, both still climbing week on week, while Bank Rate has not moved from 3.75% all year.
Whether Bank Rate follows is less clear. The Bank of England’s minutes of 17 September show market pricing pointing up, with the curve for short-term interest rates peaking at around 4.9% by the end of 2027, while its own survey of market participants, which closed on 4 September before the latest rise, still expected a prolonged hold.
The Bank says part of that upward curve is a risk premium rather than a firm expectation of rises. Its minutes also warn that even if the conflict in the Middle East ended, energy supply would likely return to normal slowly. Lenders price off that curve, so anyone buying, remortgaging or deciding whether to hold a rental this autumn should plan on rates staying high or going higher, not on a cut.
In short
- Bank Rate is 3.75%. The Bank held it on 17 September by 6 votes to 3, with three members voting for a rise to 4%.
- Moneyfacts put the average two-year fix at 5.92% on 25 September, up from 5.73% on 15 September and the highest since July 2024.
- No-fee buy to let deals are above 6%: the average no-fee two-year fix at 75% loan to value was 6.02% on 26 September, on Podium data.
- The Bank expects inflation to peak slightly above 4% in the first quarter of 2027. Market pricing points to higher rates, though the Bank’s own survey of market participants, taken before the latest rise, expected a hold.
- Underwrite at today’s rate, and test your numbers at a higher one.
What the Bank said on 17 September
The Monetary Policy Committee voted by 6 to 3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted to raise it to 4%. It was the same split as in July.
The reason is inflation. The ONS put CPI inflation at 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, and the Bank now expects it to rise to slightly above 4% in the first quarter of 2027. It said about 0.7 percentage points of the current overshoot comes directly from energy prices, with the conflict in the Middle East pushing Brent crude to $106 a barrel by 14 September.
A hold with three votes for a rise is not a neutral signal. Two more votes for a rise would have moved Bank Rate. The Bank itself says the outlook depends on how events in the Middle East develop, so the next move is not settled in either direction.
Why fixed rates rise before Bank Rate
Fixed-rate mortgages are priced off swap rates, which track where markets expect Bank Rate to go over the life of the fix. The Bank’s minutes say financial conditions tightened after July because of rises in short-term swap rates, with similar moves in the United States and the euro area. By September the quoted rate on a two-year fixed mortgage was around 0.95 percentage points higher than before the conflict began.
So lenders are pricing the rise before it happens. That is why months of unchanged Bank Rate has still produced this:
| When | Moneyfacts average new mortgage rate |
|---|---|
| Start of March 2026 | 4.90% |
| July 2026 | 5.47% |
| Start of August 2026 | 5.59% |
| 15 September 2026 | 5.68% |
That series is Moneyfacts’ average across fixed and tracker deals, with the July reading from its August release.
The two-year fix on its own has moved faster since: 5.73% on 15 September, 5.91% by 23 September, the highest since July 2024, and 5.92% on 25 September. The five-year fix reached 5.94%, the highest since October 2023. Moneyfacts is a comparison business and these are averages of advertised rates, so read them as direction, not as your quote.
No-fee buy to let fixes top 6%
Rightmove’s buy to let tracker, using Podium data, put the average no-fee two-year fix at 75% loan to value at 6.02% on 26 September 2026, up 0.05 points on the week. Paying a £2,000 fee brought the average down to 5.74%, which is the usual trade: a lower rate for a bigger upfront cost.
For owner occupiers, Rightmove’s separate residential rates page, also on Podium data and based on deals with a fee of about £999, showed 6.01% on a two-year fix at 95% loan to value on 26 September and 5.07% at 60%. The size of the deposit now moves the rate by close to a full point.
Rightmove is a property portal and Podium a mortgage data business, so like Moneyfacts they have a commercial interest in mortgage traffic. Read all three as direction, not as your quote.
Higher rates hurt a landlord twice. The first hit is the interest bill. On a £500,000 interest-only loan, every quarter of a point costs £1,250 a year. The 0.19 point rise in the Moneyfacts two-year average between 15 and 25 September alone is about £950 a year on that loan, or roughly £3,800 on £2m of portfolio debt.
The second hit is how much you can borrow at all. Buy to let lenders test the rent against a stressed interest rate, so when rates rise the loan a given rent supports shrinks. Our buy to let borrowing guide sets out how lenders run that test.
Show the calculations
An illustration, not any lender’s criteria. Take a rent of £1,500 a month and a lender that wants the rent to cover 125% of the interest.
- Annual rent: £1,500 x 12 = £18,000.
- Interest the rent can support: £18,000 / 1.25 = £14,400.
- Tested at 5%: £14,400 / 0.05 = a loan of £288,000.
- Tested at 6%: £14,400 / 0.06 = a loan of £240,000.
One point on the test rate cuts the loan by £48,000, and the borrower has to find that in cash.
That is why a remortgage this autumn can fail on paper even when the landlord has never missed a payment. Our remortgage stress test guide covers what to do if the numbers no longer pass.
What could bring rates back down
This is not one-way. Energy is doing most of the work, and the Bank says the outlook depends on the conflict, so lower oil and gas prices would ease the pressure on swap rates and fixed rates. The Bank does not expect that to be quick: its minutes say that even a resolution to the conflict would likely bring a slow and gradual return to normal energy supply.
Lenders are not all moving together either. In the week to 25 September, Hodge, Foundation and Progressive Building Society raised rates while NatWest, Skipton and Santander cut selected deals. Averages hide the best rate on offer, and a broker search can still beat the headline average.
The honest answer: Nobody knows where Bank Rate will be in a year. What is known today is that three of nine policymakers want a rise, the Bank expects inflation above 4%, and market pricing points up. Plan for that, and treat a cut as a bonus.
What this means for property investors
Underwrite at the rate you can get today, then test it at a point higher. If a deal only works on spring’s rates, it does not work.
If you are remortgaging before spring 2027, do not plan on a cut arriving first. The next decision is on 5 November 2026. Know what your interest cover looks like if the rate holds or rises.
Let the yield carry the debt. When borrowing costs close to 6%, low-yielding stock stops paying its own interest. Higher-yielding assets, HMOs and multi-unit blocks among them, are more likely to cover the interest, though they cost more to run.
Cash and low-leverage buyers have the edge. Cash buyers avoid a lender valuation and stress test altogether, low-leverage buyers pass them more easily, and sellers value that certainty.
If higher rates have changed the sums on a rental you own and you are weighing up selling, get a free desktop valuation: an evidence-backed range within 24 hours, yours whether you sell or not. Our guide to selling or keeping a buy to let runs the numbers both ways.
If you are buying on today’s borrowing costs, run every deal at today’s rate and a point higher before you commit. Browse our current listings or join the insider list for off-market deals before they are advertised.
BlackBook Investments is a property investment broker, not a mortgage, tax or investment adviser. Nothing here is a recommendation on any product or on your position. Take regulated advice before acting.