Rent controls flared up as an argument the moment the new prime minister took office, then cooled almost as fast. Andy Burnham entered Downing Street in July without ruling out rent measures for England, and early coverage described options ranging from national caps to devolved powers for mayors.
In short
- Andy Burnham did not rule out rent measures for England in July 2026, though his own allies and the housing secretary have since downplayed them.
- No rent control bill or consultation for England had been published at the last check in September 2026.
- Scotland’s 2022 to 2024 cap pushed the adjustment to the gap between tenancies, and its 2025 Act now caps re-lets too.
- Commercial FRI lease income is set by the lease, but the provider paying it still depends on residents’ rents and benefits.
Within days, the Financial Times and the i newspaper reported Burnham’s own allies discounting a rent freeze, and the housing secretary told BBC Breakfast that rent controls were not “a way forward at the moment”.
That gap between noise and law is exactly where investors lose money in both directions. This guide sets out what has been said, what the Scottish experiment actually produced, and how to underwrite the risk without panicking.
What has actually been said on rent controls
The factual record is thin and worth stating precisely. The government has confirmed nothing beyond an initial willingness to look at rent measures, a position its own housing secretary has since publicly downplayed. There is no bill, no consultation paper and no stated design in either direction.
The rental announcement the government did make, on 9 September 2026, was about putting the Renters’ Rights Act into practice: a landlord registration service from 15 December 2026 and a new route for challenging rent increases through HMRC’s Valuation Office. It did not propose a cap.
Andy Burnham’s speech to Labour Party Conference on 29 September 2026 did not mention rent controls. On private renting, it said landlords who rent out the worst quality homes will be given warnings to improve them, and that if they refuse, the government will make it much easier for councils to acquire those homes.
Reported options included caps on in-tenancy increases and handing mayors the power to designate controlled areas, and tenant groups are campaigning hard for both, with one widely reported SpareRoom survey of 5,607 renters in July 2026 finding 85% in favour.
Treat anyone who tells you controls are coming next year, and anyone who tells you they are impossible, with the same suspicion. Both are selling certainty that does not exist.
Scotland already ran the experiment
England does not need to speculate about what a cap does, because Scotland ran one. The Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Act 2022 limited in-tenancy increases, latterly to 3% in most cases, and expired on 31 March 2024. A transitional adjudication scheme tapered increases for a further year and ended on 31 March 2025.
The consistent finding from that period is that capping rents inside tenancies pushed the adjustment to the gap between tenancies. Zoopla’s rental index, a property portal dataset rather than an official statistic, showed Scotland’s advertised rents rising 12.9% in the year to late 2023, against a 9.7% UK average and 9.0% in London, as landlords priced the annual cap in at the point of re-letting.
Scotland has since legislated for the sequel. The Housing (Scotland) Act 2025 creates rent control areas: councils must assess local rent conditions and send their first reports by 31 May 2027, and ministers can then designate areas where increases are limited to CPI plus 1%, capped at 6%. In those areas the cap applies between tenancies as well as during them, which closes the gap the 2022 cap left open.
That two-stage design, evidence first, designation second, is the most likely template if England moves at all, and it is a slow one. It is also devolution-shaped, which fits the reported instinct to hand powers to mayors rather than set one national number.
What controls do to investment maths
In-tenancy caps compress reversionary upside, the gain from moving a below-market rent up to market: the below-market rent you planned to correct becomes a rent you keep. Pricing shifts from achievable rent to in-place rent, long tenancies become a liability rather than a comfort, and yield-driven buyers demand a discount for the lost growth.
Scotland’s cap years make a workable stress test: assume increases limited to low single digits inside tenancies and see whether the deal still clears your hurdle.
Note which income the argument does not touch directly. Rent-setting rules of this kind bite on assured tenancies. Income that runs through commercial leases, including the full repairing and insuring (FRI) structures behind much supported living stock, is set by the lease, not by residential rent rules. The provider paying that rent still depends on its own income from residents and housing benefit, so check its covenant as well as the lease terms.
The signals to watch on rent controls
Three markers separate noise from action:
- a published consultation.
- a bill in the King’s Speech.
- any devolution settlement that names rent powers for mayors.
Until at least one exists, rent control in England is a pricing risk, not a law. If one ever does, the Scottish timetable says you would still have years, not weeks, before a cap bites.
What this means for property investors
Do not sell good assets because of a headline, and do not buy thin deals on the assumption the headline dies. Underwrite new purchases so they work on in-place rents with low single-digit growth, favour stock and structures whose income does not depend on aggressive in-tenancy increases, and treat reversionary plays as needing a bigger margin than they did before the rent control debate started.
Our notes on the rental supply squeeze set out how tight the rental market already is, which is the market any cap would arrive into.
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BlackBook Investments is a property investment broker, not a mortgage, tax or investment adviser. Nothing here is a recommendation on any product or on your position. Take regulated advice before acting.